• Yields 3.735% vs. WI of 3.744% as of 1 PM
• Allotted at high 70.94%
• Bid To Cover 3.45 is a new record, previous at 2.67, previous reopening at 3.00
• Indirects 35.1% vs. Avg. 42.01% (Prev. 28.85%), hit ratio on Indirects 51.5%
• Direct Bidders surge to a record 17.5%, hit ratio on Directs 43%
• Primary dealer hit ratio at record low 19.9%

Some Market News commentary discussing the expectations on the 10 year reopening in advance of the auction, which may explain the various records in today’s auction.

Wednesday’s $21.0 billion 10-year note reopening sale is expected to be sponsored by short covering as well as real and
fast money demand, as specific foreign accounts may be at bay due to the issue’s reopening status or its timing ahead of the Japanese fiscal year end, sources said. Given the downtick in prices, the auction should, in theory, be supported by short covering. Dealer desks confirmed that a portion of both Tuesday and Wednesday’s downtick is linked to this week’s auction trio set up.

by Tyler Durden via zero hedge
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/21-billion-10-year-reopening-closes-3735-record-high-bid-cover-and-direct-bid-ratio-record-l

The ABC Consumer Comfort Index, which is by far the most pessimistic of all confidence trackers, and which conveniently comes out each Tuesday after market close, and just came in at -49 “has been iced in a 3-point range since early January, averaging -48 on its scale of +100 to -100 this year. That ties last year’s average, the worst on record in weekly polls since late 1985.” Digging into the data reveals why the non-millionaires in America - those that do not have access to the government’s record excess liquidity - are just plain unhappy about the economy: “The index’s individual components tell the story: Half or more Americans have rated their personal finances negatively in 91 of the last 97 weeks. Fewer than one-third have rated the buying climate positively steadily since November 2007, about when the recession began. And at least eight in 10 have rated the economy negatively since late March 2008, stuck in a 4-point range since last April.” While we have little doubt UMich Confidence and Conference Board will show dramatic improvements, as these two are merely a lagging market indicator, the question of just whom these various indices tracks, is becoming increasingly relevant as even the divergence between assorted confidence levels reaches record levels.

More from the press release:

INDEX – The CCI has been below the -40 mark for a record 98 weeks. It’s now 36 points below the long-term average, -13, and has been below that average for a remarkable 125 consecutive weeks – well over two years. It languished longer below its long-term average just once before, in a more than four-year stretch from April 1990 to December 1994.

Among the individual components of the index, just 8 percent of Americans view the economy positively, the fifth straight week at this level, the 15th straight week of single-digit ratings and 29 points below its long-term average.

For nine weeks straight at least half of Americans have rated their own finances negatively, and a quarter or fewer have called it a good time to spend money.

GROUPS – The CCI is -11 among the highest-income Americans vs. -65 for those with the lowest incomes; however this 54-point spread is the narrowest it’s been since November. Among other groups, the index is -41 among people who’ve attended college vs. -71 among those who never finished high school, -43 among homeowners but -67 among renters, and -57 among Democrats vs. -47 among Republicans. The index is closer than usual among men and women, - 45 vs. -51. And it’s notably low, -52, among 18- to 34-year-olds.

Here’s a closer look at the three components of the ABC News CCI:

NATIONAL ECONOMY – Eight percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good for the fifth straight week. The highest was 80 percent Jan. 16, 2000; the worst, 4 percent Feb. 8, 2009.

PERSONAL FINANCES – Forty-four percent say their own finances are excellent or good; it was the same last week. The best was 70 percent, last reached in January 2000. The worst was 39 percent June 28 and 21, 2009.

BUYING CLIMATE – Twenty-five percent say it’s an excellent or good time to buy things; the highest it’s been since the first week of the year. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 18 percent, last reached Oct. 19, 2008.

by Tyler Durden via zero hedge
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/abc-consumer-comfort-index-refuses-budge-near-2010-lows

Recap of market activity post the European close.

by Tyler Durden via zero hedge
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ransquawk-march-10-europe-close-afternoon-briefing

A new report by Moody’s “U.S. Bank Asset Quality: Negative Trends Slow Down, But The Pain Isn’t Over” has some gloomy observations about the asset quality of the US financial system, and its implications for future charge offs and overall profitability. In estimating total loan charge-offs between 2008 and 2011 Moody’s predicts that of the total $536 billion (really $633 billion if unadjusted for purchasing accounting marks), which is equal to 9.7% of all loan outstanding at December 31, 2007, only $240 billion has been charged off, leaving $296 billion still to hit the books. Yet banks have taken loan loss allowances of “only” $188 billion, leaving just over $100 billion unaccounted for. And people wonder why banks are unwilling to lend. Moody’s conclusion on what happens as reality catches up with charge offs: “Although banks have provisioned for a substantial amount of their remaining charge-offs, the additional provision required will extend the period that many banks will be unprofitable well into 2010, and will reduce capital levels.” Obviously, Moody’s estimates do not go past 2011 when many anticipate the next major wave of loan impairments to occur in the form of Option ARM resets and Commercial Real Estate maturities. Furthermore, Moody’s does not account for securitized credit card losses, which will also be an area of major pain for the banks in the upcoming years.  Just how big the impact of all these will be is still to be determined although it is very likely that the overall impact will impair overall bank capital by well over $100 billion over the next several years.

From the Moody’s report:

Moody’s estimates that rated U.S. banks will incur $536 billion of loan losses between 2008 and 2011, equal to 9.7% of loans outstanding at December 31, 2007. We have incorporated this amount into our views of banks’ capital adequacy and into our ratings. This amount has been reduced for the purchase accounting marks taken on residential and commercial mortgage portfolios in recent acquisitions, including JP Morgan’s purchase of Washington Mutual, Wells Fargo’s purchase of Wachovia, Bank of America’s purchases of Countrywide and Merrill Lynch, and PNC’s purchase of National City. On a gross basis (prior to the reduction by the purchase accounting marks), Moody’s loss estimate is $633 billion, or 11.4% of loans outstanding at December 31, 2007. Essentially, we believe charge-offs equal to 1.7% of loans were eliminated through purchase accounting write-downs. Note that these estimates exclude securitized credit cards.

The charts and table below summarize our gross loss estimates in dollar and percentage terms by asset class for all rated U.S. banks (Figures 1 and 2). Each asset class is broken down as follows: charge-offs that have been eliminated through purchase accounting write-downs, 2008 charge-offs, 2009 charge-offs, and the remaining losses that would need to be incurred to reach our full estimate. Rated U.S. banks charged off $88 billion of loans in 2008 and $152 billion in 2009, leaving $296 billion, or 5.3% of loans, to be charged off in 2010 and 2011 to reach our full estimate. Therefore, rated U.S. banks have recognized 45% of our anticipated net charge-offs. On an asset class basis, we believe 42% of residential mortgage losses have been taken versus 30% for CRE.

And despite some minor good news in the trend, the overall patern is still one which should force financial analysts to reevaluate their Strong Buy ratings on most banks:

Although the increase in charge-offs between 2008 and 2009 is substantial, the quarterly charge-off trend moderated at the end of 2009 with aggregate charge-offs actually declining slightly (from $41.3 billion to $40.2 billion) between the third and fourth quarters of 2009. This slow down in net charge-off recognition for rated U.S. banks did not change our forecast of the amount of charge-offs rated U.S. banks will incur, but it has changed our expectations regarding the timing of when these losses will be recognized. Previously, we had anticipated that rated U.S. banks would incur elevated charge-offs through 2010 and return to a more normalized level of charge-offs in 2011. However, we now anticipate that banks will still be grappling with elevated charge-offs through at least the first half of 2011.

The TBTF Big 4 (BofA, Wells, JPM and Citi) comprise the bulk of the charge off risk. The Big have merely gotten Bigger, and now represent an even more concetrated threat to the US economy once true marks are let out of the bag.

Figure 3 summarizes our gross loss estimate in dollar terms for the following bank groups: “Big 4 Banks”, “SCAP Banks – Non Big ”, and “Other Moody’s Rated U.S. Banks” . Our gross loss estimates for the Big 4 Banks, SCAP Banks – Non Big 4, and Other Moody’s Rated U.S. Banks are $447 billion (12.9%), $104 billion (10.4%), and $81 billion (7.5%), respectively. In comparison to our estimate that rated U.S. banks are 45% of the way through their net charge-offs, we believe the Big 4 Banks are 46% of the way through their net charge-offs, while SCAP Banks – Non Big 4 and Other Moody’s Rated U.S. Banks are each 43%.

And here is how many remaining losses at all banks and the Big 4 will still need to be digested.

Full report here.

by Tyler Durden via zero hedge
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/moodys-warns-pain-ahead-financials-protiability-concerns-due-record-charge-offs

In his piece today, Rosenberg analyzes the increasing lumpiness of volatility in the secular market, observing an increasing performance variation as the duration of major market moves is reduced, while the delta from the flatline keeps growing. Ironically this is happening even as implied correlation drifts lower over time. And even as all eagerly await to see just what the financial regulation overhaul will look like, Rosie observes that the market is now experiencing “intense volatility that has been and continues to be nurtured by government policy.” As we shift to a market which is backstopped by taxpayers holdings of assets on which even the FASB encouraged informational opacity, one wonders just what is the real value of information that prices now convey?

From Gluskin Sheff’s Breakfast with Dave:

MARKET COMMENTARY

We invoked the Shiller normalized P/E ratio yesterday as a great historical benchmark to use in terms of valuation purposes. Using this metric, we found that the S&P 500 enjoyed above-average multiples each month from November 1988 right through to November 2008. Imagine as we mean-revert how long the market will have to trade below historical multiples.

When we go to the bear market, what we see is that the S&P 500 did not move into fair-value until November 2008 — think about that for a minute. The first 13 months and 40% of the bear market merely eliminated the overvalued condition in the stock market. And for the next five months, the S&P 500 was undervalued, having hit a 20% breach at the March lows. By May 2009, however, when the S&P 500 crossed the 900 mark to the upside, the index had managed to move back above the fair-value line where it has stayed ever since — and now a breach of 25% in terms of overvalued terrain. Further to this thought process, have a look at Andy Kessler’s op-ed column on page A23 of the WSJ (Lessons of a Dow Decade).

When we look at the past 12 years, dating back to LTCM and the bailout that ensued, we have endured a 60% rally, followed by a 50% selloff, followed by a 100% rally, followed by a 60% selloff, followed by a 70% rally. The whole way along, the equity market is basically flat for a buy and hold investor.

The point in all this is the intense volatility that has been and continues to be nurtured by government policy. The lesson is that investors will now lose out by going long after a 50% selloff from the high and are unlikely to feel much pain from selling into a 70% rally from the low. All the while, the name of game is to minimize the volatility in the portfolio and embark on strategies that have low correlations to the equity market.

Finally, what is amazing is that equity market bulls are looking for the next leg up to come via improvement in the U.S. labour market. The USA Today runs with an article (page 4B) concluding that “investors need to see a Labor Department report that says employers are creating more jobs than they’re cutting. Until then, investors are going to stay cautious.” This is a truly unbelievable comment considering the S&P 500 has surged 70% in the past year — 10 years of price appreciation lumped into one — even though 3.3 million jobs were lost. Since when has Mr. Market shown that it really has an eye on the labour market? It’s all about a chase for relative yield in a low rate environment — a highly speculative environment, which is why U.S. companies have managed to float a huge $12 billion of new bond supply in each of the past two days; the hunger for yield.

by Tyler Durden via zero hedge
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/rosenberg-government-sponsored-volatility

The BLS has released the January state unemployment update: the unemployment rate increased in 30 states, while somehow nonfarm payrolls increased in 31 states. Presumably this is due to an increase in the total labor pool. As reported, “Michigan again recorded the highest unemployment rate among the states, 14.3 percent in January. The states with the next highest rates were Nevada, 13.0 percent; Rhode Island, 12.7 percent; South Carolina, 12.6 percent; and California, 12.5 percent. North Dakota continued to register the lowest jobless rate, 4.2 percent in January, followed by Nebraska and South Dakota, 4.6 and 4.8 percent, respectively. The rates in California and South Carolina set new series highs, as did the rates in three other states: Florida (11.9 percent), Georgia (10.4 percent), and North Carolina (11.1 percent). The rate in the District of Columbia (12.0 percent) also set a new series high. In total, 25 states posted jobless rates significantly lower than the U.S. figure of 9.7 percent, 11 states and the District of Columbia had measurably higher rates, and 14 states had rates that were not appreciably different from that of the nation.”

Below is a chart of the unemployment rate by state for the past 4 months as well as the sequential change.

by Tyler Durden via zero hedge
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/january-state-unemployment-update-unemployment-rate-increases-30-states-california-back-reco

Remember G-Pap’s statement, repeated roughly once for every dollar of US sovereign debt, that Greece is not looking for financial aid? One could say the man knows a lost cause when he sees one (nobody can say they refused to help you if you didn’t actually need help), which is why Greece has just become the biggest sovereign debt panhandler, begging its own people for a bailout. The Greek situation is now so bad that as of a few days ago there is a newly opened account titled “Solidarity Account for Repayment of Public Debt” at the Bank of Greece, which is now redirecting public donations straight for the “repayment of Greece’s public debt.” We hope these are tax deductible. This account has appeared about at the same time as California has started asking retail investors to directly invest in its critical $2 billion bond offering. In the sovereign crises of the future, will paypal donations play a critical role? All signs point to yes.

h/t Marco

by Tyler Durden via zero hedge
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/prudent-greek-fiscal-policy-panhandling-public-debt

Via UBS Financial Services

As Told To….. – I was at an all-day, offsite seminar yesterday so this is not the usual eye-witness account but is based on input from friends. The stock market opened marginally weak but quickly changed to the upside in reaction to a sharp downside move in the dollar.

Some upbeat talk from some airlines about the “return of the passenger” combined with strength in the railroads to take the Transport Index to a new 52 week high. Since the Industrials have not made a new high that sets up a Dow Theory “confirmation” challenge. If the Industrials fail to make a new 52 week high that would set up a negative divergence, hinting a meaningful pullback in stocks.

For much of the early going the Industrials looked like they might have a go at a run toward new highs. Part of the thrust came from a series of rumors that spurred trading in the likes of Fannie, Freddie, AIG and Citi. The rumor that seemed to help them all was a zany thesis that the U.S. might ban shorting of the companies that it had a large stake in. While the rumor seemed whacky and unfounded, a rumor is not responsible for who believes in it. That became evident as buyers surged into the above-named stocks, probably on the theory that a shorting ban could cause a massive short covering rally.

Citi benefitted from a couple of other rumors. Charlie Gasparino reported on Fox that the U.S. government was looking to sell its Citi stake. That might free the company up. The stock spiked 7%. Also helping was the strong demand for some preferred shares the company was issuing.

The rumor driven frenzy in those stocks swelled the volume sharply. Monday looked like the slowest day of year, followed by the highest volume in a month. All thanks to a couple of rumors.

Shortly after 1:00, the rally in the averages seemed to sputter. The initial pull back was small. They regrouped and tried to rally again shortly after 2:00. They failed to get past the earlier high and things started to turn ugly, quickly. Bids evaporated and stocks plunged in a trapdoor selloff. They shot into negative territory.

In the final hour, they circled the wagons and regained plus territory but marginally. Unfortunately, the general volume (away from the four rumor beneficiaries) accelerated on the selloff.

What caused the sudden selloff? They were several theories. First was simply technical. The failure of the S&P to surmount its earlier intra-day high, presented a double top and a failed attempt to break through Januaries highs. That, said the napkin readers, spooked the bulls.

Some friends had another theory. Shortly after 1:00, a Wall Street Journal blog run a story on a speech by a Fed official. Here’s a bit:

For some time now, Federal Reserve officials have been hesitant to put a precise time frame on when they will begin to tighten policy, except to note the action lies well into the future.

But on Monday, one of their chief lieutenants, the man charged with implementing Fed policy, offered a pretty clear take on the likely timing of a move up in interest rates. The official, New York Fed Markets Group chief Brian Sack, has no formal role in setting monetary policy. But his position elevates his importance, and he suggested in a speech some sort of rate tightening will occur by late year.

“The current configuration of yields and asset prices incorporates expectations that short-term interest rates will begin to rise around the end of this year,” Sack told a group of economists in Virginia. “The markets seem prepared for the risks toward tighter policy,” he said, adding a “decent-sized term premium” on longer-dated yields suggests low chances of a “sizable upward shift in yields’ when that tightening comes.
Why is this observation important? Sack’s speech was entitled “Preparing for a Smooth (Eventual) Exit” from the current state of very stimulative monetary policy. If the Fed wants a tranquil exit from its current stance of 0% interest rates and if it thinks market are priced for the move, then it’s reasonable to believe a late-year increase in rates is what policy makers have penciled in.

Sack’s speech also laid out a path for the unwind. He sees the Fed draining reserves on a temporary basis, then raising rates, all the while allowing the $1.7 trillion in mortgage and Treasury assets it will have purchased by end-March to mature. Any active sales will come much later. Importantly, he said the tools to drain reserves temporarily will be in place by midyear, lending additional heft to the idea the Fed can start easing rates up off 0% by year end.

That hinted tightening could come sooner than expected. Some friends claim it caused a lot of buzz and may have contributed to the selloff.

We’ll investigate more today.

Spotty Performance – My ham radio pal passed along the latest sunspot data. For the period from February 25th through March 3rd, the numbers were 30, 26, 26, 13, 36, 39, and 39. Longtime readers will recognize that for the first three days, we had basically two spots per day. Then, we dropped to one spot followed by three days of approximately three spots per day. It’s nice to see the action but we’re still below normal. Despite the recent thaw, remember where you put that sweater.

Consensus – Assaulting January highs. Stay Nimble.

Trivia Corner

Answer - If you spell “Tennis” backward, you find the last three letters spell “Net” - a piece of equipment used in Tennis.

Today’s Question - Tomorrow, today will be yesterday and yesterday, today was tomorrow. When tomorrow is yesterday, today will be as close to Sunday as today was when yesterday was tomorrow. What day is it?

And here is why fixing healthcare, whether today or in the middle ages, never works when the government gets involved:

History

On this day in 1349, in the midst of the infamous Black Plague epidemic, the forces of government, science and academia came together with a plan to save the people. As you recall from earlier episodes, the Black Plague had spread from the eastern Mediterranean throughout most of Europe killing millions over the preceding three years. People searched everywhere for the source of the plague…..a heavenly curse; a burden of immigrants; the result of spices in the food. It was tough to figure however, since whenever they held a conference either the host area caught the plague or the visitors did…..so…..not too many conferences.

Then in the six months preceding this date the death rate leveled off…..or seemed to. So in castles and universities and town halls across Europe, great minds pondered the cause of the plague. And they came pretty close. The collective governmental/academic wisdom was that the source of the Black Plague was fleas - (absolutely correct). So the word went out from town to town across Europe - to stop the plague - kill the fleas -by killing all the dogs. And immediately the slaughter of all dogs began.

But like lots of well-intentioned governmental/academic ideas it was somewhat wide of the mark…and had unexpected consequences. The cause was fleas alright but not dog fleas…..it was rat fleas. And in the 1300’s what was the most effective way to hold down the rat population…..you guessed it - dogs. So by suggesting that townsfolk kill their dogs, the wise authorities had unwittingly allowed the rat population to flourish and thus a new vicious rash of Black Plague began. Before it was over, three years later, nearly 1 out of 3 people in the world had died of the plague.

To mark this eventful period, take time to review your public servant’s plans for your welfare. Whether taxes or healthcare, they’ll work night and day for a solution. It may not be as efficient as the way that they handled social security but - what is? Just remember that these public servants have your best interests at heart. Don’t dwell on the DARK AGES. Back in those days the seat of government often was filled with rats, vermin and leeches. Thank goodness those days are over.

(Historic footnote…..Published sources say that with so many people dying, millions of estates had to be settled - result…..the fallout of the plague was a huge growth in….the number of lawyers.)

There were no carts on Wall Street with guys crying “bring out your dead” yesterday. But in mid-afternoon, the stock market looked like it needed a doctor.

by Tyler Durden via zero hedge
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/morning-musings-art-cashin-bubonic-plague-and-healthcare-reform

• Regulators tell US banks to hold money (FT)
• Even as Italy is expected to go bust next, Italy’s Romano Prodi Says “Greek Crisis Is Over, Rest of Region Safe” (Bloomberg)
• Race to the bottom with G4 currency rhetoric (Reuters)
• Finance: an exposed position (FT)
• Todd Harrison: The witch hunt widens on Wall Street (MarketWatch)
• Simon Johnson reviews Hank Paulson’s memoir (The New Republic)
• O’Krugman’s Keynesian blarney (IBD)
• Buyout firms can’t spend $503 billion as fund deadlines loom (Bloomberg)
• China’s exports, property prices add pressure to pare stimulus (Bloomberg)
• GDP growth expected to slow down, keep rates low (Reuters)
• Dubai made “some progress” in debt talk, U.K. minister said (Bloomberg)
• Goldman moves to block Shaw Communications from buying Canwest (Financial Post)
• Dollar optimism soars to 18-month high as US outpaces Europe (Bloomberg)
• Macroimprudential monetary policy (National Post)
• Abu Dhabi is future base for Murdoch’s News Corp (Breitbart, h/t Bill)
• Build America pays off on Wall Street (WSJ)
• Greece says no budget slippage, concerned by yields (Reuters)
• Wall Street’s role in Greek crisis should be no surprise (WaPo)

by Tyler Durden via zero hedge
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/frontrunning-march-10-0

• Asian stocks fluctuated as shipping lines and oil companies declined.
• British banks face increased bonus disclosure as Myners plans to lower bar
• China’s trade surplus shrinks to smallest in a year as imports surge 44.7% in Feb.
• Chinese banks lend about $102.6B in February, around half the loans issued in Jan.
• EU is considering a ban on speculative derivative trades, including credit default swaps.
• Japan’s Jan machinery orders fall 3.7%; business spending revival may be slow.
• Manufacturing in U.K. unexpectedly plunges as it sees `fragile’ economy
• AIG climbs on speculation bailed-out U.S. insurer may divest more assets
• Steelmakers in Europe, US are allocating larger budgets to growth projects in 2010.
• US Senate said to weigh setting up $50B fund to wind down failed firms.
• Abbott Labs will bulk up its product pipeline with a $722M deal for Facet Biotech Corp.
• AIG’s `money in the door’ asset sales reap $3.2B for bondholders
• Apollo Mgmt LP to buy Citigroup Inc.’s real estate investment unit (NAV of $3.5B).
• Barclays is seeking a retail lender that would give it more deposits.
• Cathay swings to 2009 profit of $604.4M led by fuel hedging gains. Revs fell 23%.
• China Mobile agrees to buy 20% of Pudong Development Bank for $5.8B
• Collective Brands Q4 loss narrows to $10.9M on year-earlier charges.
• Continental Air open to merger should competition dictate
• E.ON’s 2009 net rises almost 7 times to €8.4B on asset sales and derivative gains.
• Foot Locker expects sales to rise to $6B in five years.
• Ingersoll-Rand prohibits non-U.S. subsidiaries from selling products to customers in Iran.
• Glencore profit dropped 43% in 2009 on lower metal and energy prices
• Kroger Co. reported its Q4 net fell 27% to $255.4M on higher costs. Revs rose 7.2%.
• MGM creditors say they would rather convert to equity than sell out for an unsatisfactory price.
• Munich Re eyes 2B eur 2010 profit despite quake
• Navistar’s Q1 profit slumped 93% to $17M on a big year-earlier litigation gain.
• Neiman Marcus swings to Q2 profit of $4M after steep write-downs year-ago.
• PCCW Ltd’s 2009 net profit rose 19% on revaluation gains in its property, financial invts.
• Sanofi, Merck to revive JV that would be the world’s largest seller of animal medications.
• Toyota says no new Prius recall planned.

Earnings Calendar: AEO, BONT, GYMB, HIL, HOTT, IPAR, JAS, MTN, MW, ODC, RAE, RMIX, SMTC, SMTX, STAN, WG.

RECENT RATING ACTIONS

ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV NV (ABI BB)
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MARSH & MCLENNAN COS INC (MMC)
COMERICA INC (CMA)
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H&R BLOCK INC (HRB)
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Data provided by Egan-Jones Ratings and Analytics

by Tyler Durden via zero hedge
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/daily-highlights-31010